Coinbase Research has raised fresh concerns that a convergence of technical setbacks, declining investor sentiment, and mounting macroeconomic pressures could be pointing toward the beginning of another crypto winter—potentially echoing the sharp market decline experienced between late 2021 and early 2023.
In a newly published report, David Duong, Coinbase’s head of institutional research, outlined several red flags that suggest the market may be entering a bearish phase. Notably, both Bitcoin and the Coinbase COIN50 index have dipped below their 200-day moving averages—a critical technical threshold that many traders interpret as a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
This bearish sentiment is surfacing despite a recent rebound in crypto prices. Since March 11, digital assets have shown signs of recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surpassing $87,000 and Ethereum (ETH) rising above $2,000. However, Coinbase cautions that this upward movement might not be sustainable in the current macroeconomic climate.
According to the report, broader global challenges are compounding the market’s weakness. Heightened trade tensions, exemplified by rising global tariffs, alongside ongoing fiscal tightening, have suppressed investor appetite for risk. As a result, capital inflows into altcoins and early-stage blockchain ventures have largely stalled. Duong described the current environment as “paralyzed,” noting that both traditional and digital assets are feeling the strain.
While the report stops short of officially declaring a new crypto winter, it draws strong parallels with the last major downturn, which wiped nearly $2 trillion off the digital asset market following the collapse of several high-profile crypto firms. Though today’s conditions appear less chaotic, similar patterns of liquidity stress and investor fatigue are becoming apparent.
Nevertheless, Coinbase maintains a glimmer of hope. The research team stresses that a tactical and patient investment strategy will be crucial in navigating the months ahead. Once macroeconomic headwinds begin to ease, sentiment could shift quickly. “When the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to happen rather quickly,” Duong concluded, signaling a more constructive outlook for the latter half of 2025.
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