Quick Breakdown
- Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko warns Bitcoin could face quantum threats within five years.
- Experts agree that quantum computers may eventually break current encryption, though timelines differ.
- Upgrading Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography would require a divisive hard fork.
Yakovenko: “50/50 chance of quantum breakthrough within five years”
Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has sounded the alarm on Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing, suggesting that a major breakthrough could arrive much sooner than many expect.
Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said there is a “50/50 chance within five years” that quantum technology will advance to the point where it threatens Bitcoin’s core cryptography.
“We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme,”
he stressed, adding that the rapid pace of technological convergence—especially in artificial intelligence—makes the timeline difficult to predict.
Experts warn that current cryptography won’t hold forever
Bitcoin’s security is built on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which relies on solving complex elliptic curve discrete logarithm problems—practically impossible for classical computers. However, quantum computers may eventually bypass these protections.
Cybersecurity expert David Carvalho, founder of Naoris Protocol, cautioned in June that quantum computers are progressing so rapidly they could “plausibly rip through Bitcoin’s cryptography in less than five years.”
The problem is that migrating Bitcoin to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork, a controversial move often resisted by crypto communities.
Bitcoin leaders remain skeptical of short-term risk
Not all in the Bitcoin space share Yakovenko’s urgency. Blockstream CEO Adam Back argued that today’s quantum computers are not yet a credible threat, suggesting the danger could be “maybe 20 years” away.
Alexander Leishman, CEO of River, a Bitcoin-based financial services provider, has weighed in on the growing debate surrounding quantum computing’s potential threat to Bitcoin. While he remains sceptical of any immediate risk, Leishman argues that Bitcoin is uniquely vulnerable compared to traditional banking systems
Meanwhile, a new proposal submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Assets Task Force has raised alarm over the potential impact of quantum computing on the foundations of digital assets, warning that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto ecosystem face systemic risks unless urgent safeguards are adopted.
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