BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin must surge beyond $110,000—and potentially reach between $150,000 and $200,000—before a true altcoin season can take hold.
In a May 18 interview with Fortune, Hayes said such a breakout could occur by June or early in the third quarter, driven by expanding market liquidity and increased trading volume. Now managing his family office, Maelstrom, Hayes clarified that while an altcoin rally is probable, it’s unlikely to replicate the explosive gains seen during the 2021 cycle.
Building on this outlook, Hayes warned investors against expecting a broad-based recovery among all altcoins. He specifically cautioned against so-called “dino coins”—legacy tokens that, in his view, suffer from inflated, fully diluted valuations, limited circulating supply, and a lack of real-world utility. “You probably have a bunch of coins in your portfolio that went down 95%, and they’re not moving for a reason,” he stated, underscoring the importance of selectivity in the evolving crypto landscape.
When asked to weigh in on Ethereum versus Solana, Hayes sided with Ethereum as the likely outperformer in the next bull run. While he acknowledged Solana’s dramatic rise from $7 to over $170, he pointed to Ethereum’s stronger fundamentals—including the highest total value locked (TVL), the largest developer base, and enhanced security through its proof-of-stake consensus. These strengths, he argued, position Ethereum as a more sustainable long-term asset.
Looking further ahead, Hayes reaffirmed his bold forecast that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the end of a potential second term for Donald Trump in 2028. In the short term, he sees BTC rising to approximately $250,000 by year-end.
Finally, Hayes pointed to broader global shifts, noting that the rise of DeepSeek AI, a Chinese competitor to OpenAI, could lead investors to reconsider U.S.-centric portfolios. This, he suggested, may redirect capital flows toward international markets and opportunities beyond traditional American assets.
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