Last updated on May 31st, 2024 at 05:15 pm
Multiple market analysts and stakeholders have suggested that Bitcoin might now be entering a re-accumulation phase after its recent price correction, all of them citing historical patterns.
Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal highlighted that the “Macro Summer and Fall” is driven by the global liquidity cycle, which has been consistent since 2028. He further suggested that crypto assets could perform well in the latter half of the year.
“A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify. Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008, ”
Pul wrote in a social media post on May 13.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also predicted a period of sideways trading and accumulation before markets start moving later this year, citing Federal Reserve monetary policy injecting liquidity into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, Crypto market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency is at the end of the “danger zone” post-halving, noting a positive bounce from the re-accumulation range low support.
The Post-Halving Bitcoin “Danger Zone” (purple) is officially over
And Bitcoin is celebrating with a good bounce from the Re-Accumulation Range Low support$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/3pvWKRAqNd pic.twitter.com/KRD2UNDZiT
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 13, 2024
The Bitcoin Post-Halving “Danger Zone” (purple) is officially over. Source: Rekt Capital
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced pre and post-halving “danger zones,” characterised by price corrections before and after halving events. In the current cycle, the cryptocurrency saw a 23% decline from its mid-March peak to $56,800 on May 1, 2024. It has since recovered, trading above $63,000 as of press time, according to TradingView, supporting the re-accumulation zone analysis.
Despite historical patterns, future movements are uncertain, and further pullbacks could occur during the sideways chop that often follows halving events.
Bitcoin has experienced several significant price retracements since November 2022, when it hit its lowest price ever since the last bull cycle. These retracements include a 23% decline in February 2023, lasting 21 days, a 21% drop in April/May 2023, lasting 63 days, a 22% decrease in July/September 2023, lasting 63 days, a 21% retrace in January 2024, lasting 14 days, and most recently, a 23.6% pullback in March, April, and May 2024, lasting 49 days.
The current pullback marks only the fifth major retrace since the 2022 bear market bottom and might be the deepest in the cycle so far. While retraces in this cycle typically last 2-3 weeks, some have extended up to two months.
Rekt Capital pointed to two key takeaways from these retracements in the current cycle. First, as Bitcoin approaches a 20% retrace, the opportunity for a rebound improves. Second, the longer the pullback lasts, the greater the likelihood of reaching a bottom.
“If $56,000 was not the bottom then this current pullback will have officially equalled the longest retrace in this cycle at 63 days. History however suggests that this current pullback ended at $56000 and 47 days,”
the analyst wrote.
Disclaimer: This piece is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein should be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrencies carries a considerable risk of financial loss. Always conduct due diligence.
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