- The post-retest rally would surge the BTC by 7.7%
- The BTC price jumps above the 50-day EMA.
- The 24-hour trading volume of Bitcoin is $25.1 Billion, marking a 14.7% loss.
Past Performance of BTC
Bitcoin has remained highly volatile since the Russian invasion in Ukraine during mid-late February. The buyers made several attempts to breach the $45000 monthly resistance in the last two months, but the sellers defending this level with vigour have restricted the bullish recovery. However, an upcoming ascending trendline bolstered new higher highs, which led the price action to the overhead resistance ($45000).
Onchain Analysis
The GIOM indicator shows almost 66% of HODLers make a profit with the BTC price above the $40K mark. The on-chain clusters project a weak upcoming bearish zone compared to the support cluster. However, the “at the money” cluster till $43K must be surpassed to reach the $45K mark.
The Open interest (OI) shows the number of outstanding derivative contracts, in layman’s terms, it is the number of open positions in the Future or Options market. The OI shows a growing trend in the last few days as it approaches $20 Billion from $17.5 Billion on March 13.
However, in the absence of Funding rates, open positions lack direction as they could be bullish or bearish.
The Funding Rate is the fees charged to keep the perpetual swap price closer to the underlying asset or Bitcoin, in this case. The rates are positive when the swap price is more than the actual price indicating the bulls are paying the bears and vice versa.
At press time, the rates are entering the positive zone reflecting the open interest has many bullish open positions.
Technical Analysis
The stiff overhead resistance and a rising trendline reveal the formation of an ascending triangle pattern in the daily time frame chart. Even though the coin price has violated the $40000 level multiple times, it strictly follows the bullish pattern structure.
Furthermore, the price action forms a highly bullish double bottom pattern, resulting in the $45K breakout. However, the stiff resistance at $42K acts as the neckline of the double bottom, and the buyers must overcome the selling pressure to boost the breakout rally.
The Bitcoin price trading below the downsloping 100 and 200-day suggests an overall bearish tendency in the market.
Relative Strength Indicator: The RSI slopes wavering around the midline(50) accentuate the sideways rally in price action.
ADX Indicator: The significant drop in ADX value indicates the weakened bearish momentum.
Volatile Indicator: The VI lines regain the bullish alignment with the trend reversal crossover indicating the possibility of the $42K breakout.
In a nutshell, the BTC technical analysis shows early reversal signs, bolstering a new recovery rally.
The recent bull cycle from the support trendline has driven the BTC price above the $40000 mark, registering an 11% gain. The sustained buying would pump the coin price by another 7.7%, hitting the $45000 crucial resistance.
If buyers manage this resistance, the pattern completion should pump the coin price to the $52000 mark.
Alternatively, if sellers revert the BTC price from $45000 resistance, the consolidation phase would continue for a few more sessions.
Support Levels: $40000 and $50000
Resistance Levels: $45000 and $36400
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