Quick Breakdown
- BitMine’s Tom Lee warns Bitcoin could still experience 50% price drops despite institutional adoption.
- He believes Bitcoin now operates on a “longer cycle,” with potential to hit $200K–$250K before year-end.
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt also predicts a possible 50% correction based on historical patterns.
Bitcoin still faces steep risks, says BitMine chair Tom Lee
Bitcoin’s historic volatility may not be behind it just yet, warns BitMine chair Tom Lee. Speaking in a recent interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Lee cautioned that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could still suffer 50% price declines under the right conditions.
I sat down with @fundstrat to discuss whether AI is a bubble, why this may be the most hated stock market rally in history, and how misleading economic data shapes investor sentiment.
Tom also shares his latest views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and why innovation in crypto markets is… pic.twitter.com/5GSKz5V1X0
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 24, 2025
“I’m sure there will be 50% drawdowns,”
Lee said, countering the growing belief that institutional inflows and spot Bitcoin ETFs have permanently stabilized the asset.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market
Lee noted that Bitcoin continues to track movements in traditional equities, often exaggerating them. He pointed out that the stock market has seen multiple 25% corrections in recent years — scenarios that could trigger much sharper declines for Bitcoin.
“If the S&P is down 20%, Bitcoin could be down 40%,”
he said, emphasizing that the crypto market still reacts strongly to macroeconomic shocks.
A “longer cycle” ahead for Bitcoin
Despite his caution, Lee remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He believes the asset has broken free from its traditional four-year halving cycle which would typically suggest a market peak around this period and is instead entering a “longer cycle.”
Earlier this month, Lee told the Bankless podcast he expects Bitcoin to climb as high as $200,000 to $250,000 before the year ends. A 50% correction from that range would still leave Bitcoin trading near $125,000 — roughly at its current all-time high.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at around $109,981, according to CoinMarketCap. Should the market reverse, a 50% drop would send prices tumbling to about $54,990, levels last seen in September 2024.
Market veterans share similar concerns
Lee’s warning aligns with that of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz who expressed scepticism regarding predictions that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 before the end of 2025, calling the scenario highly unlikely.
Still, not everyone shares this bearish tone. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, one of Bitcoin’s most vocal advocates, dismissed fears of another downturn earlier this year, stating,
“Winter is not coming back.”
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