Quick Breakdown
- Polymarket odds of SBF receiving a Trump pardon jumped from 5.6% to 12% after CZ’s release.
- Over $6.5 million has been wagered on the “Who will Trump pardon in 2025?” market.
- Industry experts say comparing CZ’s compliance case to SBF’s multi-billion fraud is unjustified.
Polymarket bets surge on possible SBF pardon
Following the recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, Polymarket traders are increasingly speculating that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be next in line for clemency.
According to on-chain prediction data, the odds of Trump pardoning Bankman-Fried in 2025 jumped from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over $6.5 million staked on the market. Of that amount, more than $302,000 has been wagered directly on SBF’s potential pardon.
Another Polymarket market tracking whether SBF will be “released from custody in 2025” surged from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling back at around 15.5%.
Appeal still pending, but pardon seen as only hope
While SBF has filed an appeal to reduce his 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy, legal experts say there is little chance of a resolution before year’s end. As such, a presidential pardon appears to be his only plausible route to freedom before January 2026.
The sudden surge in betting activity reflects shifting sentiment among crypto traders following CZ’s release, though many observers argue that comparing their cases is misleading.
Industry voices reject comparison to CZ’s case
Legal and industry commentators have pushed back against any parallel between the two cases. Binance’s CZ served four months for violating U.S. Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws, whereas SBF was found guilty of misappropriating billions in customer assets and orchestrating one of the largest financial frauds in crypto history.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump extended clemency to SBF, emphasizing the ex-FTX founder’s political baggage as a major Democratic donor.
Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law, also noted the key distinction “Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds. His offense was compliance-related, not morally criminal.”
Trump, addressing CZ’s case, claimed the Binance founder had been “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that “what he did wasn’t even a crime.”
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