Quick Breakdown
- Bitcoin ended Q3 flat, matching its historical trend of low third-quarter volatility and modest average gains of around 6%.
- Ethereum defied seasonal patterns with its strongest quarter in over three years, signaling renewed investor demand.
- Analysts expect Q4 to be pivotal, as Bitcoin has historically delivered stronger gains despite a recent drop below $110,000.
Bitcoin closed the third quarter with little price movement, underscoring a period of muted volatility that analysts say aligns with the cryptocurrency’s historical Q3 performance. According to market trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin’s roughly flat result is typical for this time of year, with the third quarter averaging only about a 6% increase across its trading history. The lack of significant movement follows a similarly subdued second quarter, keeping Bitcoin firmly within its seasonal trend.
The quarter is coming to an end and this is where we stand.$BTC Has seen very little volatility and is closing the quarter relatively flat. This is not out of the ordinary for Q3 as you can see. It\’s the worst quarter on average with \”only\” a ~6% increase on average throughout… pic.twitter.com/1ilzanFnhr
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) September 29, 2025
Ethereum breaks seasonal pattern
In contrast, Ethereum recorded its best quarter in three and a half years, defying the usual Q3 slowdown. Daan noted that the rally was notable even for Ethereum, which typically underperforms during the summer months. The strong showing highlights renewed investor interest in ETH despite broader market caution, suggesting that network developments and capital inflows are driving demand outside traditional seasonal expectations.
Q4 seen as key period for bitcoin
Looking ahead, historical data shows that Bitcoin often delivers stronger gains in the fourth quarter, a period that has traditionally brought higher volatility and price appreciation. Daan emphasized that Bitcoin remains the asset to watch as it continues to lag behind gold and equities in recent weeks. Ethereum’s recent surge, however, raises questions about whether its own seasonal trends will hold, with analysts watching for signs of sustained momentum.
This reflects a market where Bitcoin’s reliability and Ethereum’s unexpected strength are setting up a potentially pivotal fourth quarter for the crypto sector. Investors now face a decisive period to see whether established patterns remain intact or give way to a new phase of market dynamics.
Adding pressure to the outlook, Bitcoin slipped below $110,000 earlier this month, breaching its January 2025 peak of $109,590 and extending its drawdown to more than 13% from its all-time high of $123,640. Analysts are watching the $93,000–$95,000 zone as the most likely area for a cyclical bottom, citing both historical drawdown patterns and seasonal market behaviour.
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