A recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets reveals a pivotal development in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics: for the first time in the cryptocurrency’s history, the volume of BTC untouched for 10 years or more—known as “ancient supply”—is now expanding faster than the rate of new issuance.
Drawing on data from Glassnode, Fidelity’s June 18 report notes that an average of 566 BTC per day are being added to the ancient supply category, compared to just 450 BTC being newly issued each day. This milestone, which emerged following the 2024 halving, underscores growing confidence among long-term holders and highlights Bitcoin’s increasingly scarce nature.
Ancient supply is growing.
As of June 8, over 17% of all #bitcoin hasn’t moved in 10+ years.
Fidelity projects this could hit 30%+ by 2035. pic.twitter.com/k4u5IK109d
— TFTC (@TFTC21) June 18, 2025
Further reinforcing this trend, Fidelity analysts estimate that over 3.4 million BTC—valued at more than $360 billion—now qualify as ancient supply. This includes coins attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto and a significant portion believed to be lost or inaccessible. As of June 2025, this ancient supply represents more than 17% of the total circulating BTC.
However, the report also highlights that even long-term holders are not immune to broader market pressures. Since the 2024 U.S. election, daily reductions in ancient supply have occurred 10% of the time, far higher than the historical average of under 3%. This uptick in movement among older coins has coincided with periods of sideways price action and heightened volatility in early 2025.
Fidelity introduced the “ancient supply HODL rate,” which tracks the net daily increase of 10-year Bitcoin holders adjusted for new BTC issuance. This rate became positive in April 2024, highlighting the impact of long-term holders. Fidelity projects that ancient supply could make up 20% of total Bitcoin by 2028 and 30% by 2035, particularly with the involvement of large institutional holders.
Meanwhile, adding another layer to the market landscape, a joint report from Bybit and analytics firm Block Scholes points to a sharp divergence in options market volatility, with Ethereum (ETH) significantly outpacing Bitcoin (BTC) throughout May 2025, suggesting shifting trader sentiment between the two leading digital assets.
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