Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, has attributed Bitcoin’s ongoing stagnation around the $100,000 level to a fundamental shift in market dynamics, specifically, a quiet but significant transfer of supply from early long-term holders to aggressive treasury accumulators.
In a post shared via his X account, Edwards explained that a new class of institutional buyers, namely, Bitcoin treasury companies, has begun absorbing circulating supply at a rapid pace, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
People are wondering why BTC has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO. Despite what X news might suggest, it’s because Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on Wall St since the ETF Launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.
In April… pic.twitter.com/0qYOiX2vqE
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) June 29, 2025
While much attention has centred on institutional ETF inflows since their approval in early 2024, Edwards contends that the real market narrative is unfolding on-chain. According to his analysis, long-time Bitcoin holders —those who accumulated early —have been steadily offloading their assets to Wall Street buyers since January. However, this dynamic has shifted sharply over the past two months.
“Bitcoin treasury companies are creating a flywheel effect,”
Edwards noted.
“Their rate of accumulation has now overtaken all the BTC that long-term holders dumped over the past 18 months.”
Supporting this claim, on-chain data shows a marked increase in the number of wallets holding Bitcoin for over six months. This cohort, often associated with high conviction and low selling tendencies, has added enough BTC to absorb the supply previously released by older holders in full.
Historical data shows that significant accumulation by long-term holders often leads to bullish price movements. Similar accumulation periods have triggered supply squeezes and price increases in the past, indicating potential short-term bullish trends. However, broader on-chain metrics are mixed, and the sustainability of any upward movement will depend on treasury firms’ ability to continue accumulating amid market uncertainty.
Adding further weight to the bullish narrative, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant suggest that Bitcoin may be nearing a trend reversal. In an April 13 update, CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson highlighted the narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s perpetual futures and spot prices on Binance, a signal often associated with shifting market momentum and potential upside.
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