Bitcoin’s recent price action is drawing renewed attention as talks between the United States and China inch closer to a potential trade agreement, raising questions about whether the world’s leading cryptocurrency behaves like a safe-haven asset in today’s geopolitical climate.
Crypto trader and analyst “Daan Crypto” noted the contrast on May 11, pointing out that Bitcoin held up “incredibly strong” amid the market turbulence. According to Daan, this resilience sparked speculation that Bitcoin’s rally was fueled by narratives of nations using it to navigate around trade barriers.
“Theoretically speaking, if the trade uncertainty was what was making BTC outperform, it should stop outperforming after we hit the most important deal, which includes China.”
Daan said.
After plunging to $75,000 on April 7, Bitcoin rebounded sharply to end the month around $95,000, marking a 27% recovery, according to CoinMarketCap data. This performance came as global equities took a hit, with indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sliding in the same period, triggered mainly by former President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on “Liberation Day.”
On May 11, the White House announced “substantial progress” in the ongoing trade discussions with China, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that more details would be shared soon. However, no final agreement has been inked yet.
Daan suggests that if Bitcoin continues to outperform even after a deal is finalized, it could debunk the theory that tariff fears influence its strength.
“it’s safe to assume that tariffs likely have little direct impact on how BTC is treated or used,”
he said.
However, others remain cautious. Analyst Will Clemente warned that Bitcoin’s momentum may fade without a concrete trade deal announcement. “Feels like you’re gonna need a real, tangible announcement on the China front to keep things moving here locally, momentum starting to stall out on BTC for the first time in a bit,” he said.
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