João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, warns that XRP may enter a prolonged and volatile distribution phase until late 2025.
He outlines two contrasting scenarios for XRP based on the Wyckoff distribution model—one bearish and the other misleadingly bullish—indicating increasing uncertainty about the token’s mid-term outlook.
Someone asked me what the most chaotic scenario for XRP’s price could be — and I answered: a long-term Distribution phase.
In this image, I illustrate a radical distribution scheme that could potentially extend into late 2025. But first, a sign of weakness — with price dropping… https://t.co/s3VyKFXBZE pic.twitter.com/lkkCGDxJHD
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) April 6, 2025
The analysis presents two contrasting scenarios for XRP’s price movement. In “Scheme 1,” XRP could experience a significant decline, potentially dropping below its pandemic-era lows to as low as 10 cents, indicating a critical weakness if market pressures and institutional support further deteriorate. Conversely, “Scheme 2” envisions a potential rally, with prices soaring to around $6.80, averaging between $5.50 and $5.70. However, this spike may not signal a lasting bull run; instead, it could represent the final phase of a distribution cycle, misleading retail investors into believing a genuine long-term breakout is imminent.
Wedson emphasizes that XRP’s future performance is influenced by various interconnected factors, such as liquidity conditions, market makers, and retail investor behaviour. He observes that the current state of XRP is shaped not only by its price but also by how investors perceive market movements, particularly in light of potential manipulation. Additionally, low on-chain activity and long-term holder behaviour indicate a noticeable decline in investor confidence compared to previous bullish phases. Despite skepticism, Wedson believes an unconventional market cycle could lead to an unexpected price rally, emphasizing the need for caution due to past misjudgments that overlooked key reversal points in XRP’s history.
Despite the uncertainty, Wedson maintains a cautiously optimistic view of the altcoin sector. He argues that the crypto market may be on the verge of an altcoin resurgence, even as Bitcoin shows signs of exhaustion. Noting that Bitcoin dominance has surged past 62%, he observes that many altcoins remain in an accumulation phase, potentially setting the stage for a breakout between April and May.
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