Bitwise has reiterated its optimistic Bitcoin forecast, maintaining a $200,000 price target for 2025 despite increasing global trade tensions.
In a recent blog post, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, supported the firm’s previous prediction, suggesting that current geopolitical shifts, particularly related to U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, could benefit Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
“Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,”
Hougan stated, citing a historical inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin. The DXY has dipped over 7% since the start of 2025, according to Tradingview. Hougan believes this trend will continue as the current administration pushes for a weaker dollar, even at the cost of the greenback’s global reserve status.
Hougan also referenced an April 7 speech by Steve Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who criticized the dollar’s dominance in an April 7 speech, linking it to trade imbalances and a decline in U.S. manufacturing. He suggested that weakening the dollar could lead investors to consider alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Bitwise supports this view, believing that dollar weakness may boost Bitcoin’s price in the short term. In contrast, a shift in the global reserve system could position decentralized assets like Bitcoin as key players in a more diversified reserve model in the long term.
“The world is moving toward a more fractured reserve system, with hard money like Bitcoin and gold becoming more important,”
Hougan said.
Supporting this narrative, investment firm VanEck recently highlighted reports that China and Russia are settling some energy transactions in Bitcoin, reflecting a global de-dollarisation trend in light of escalating trade tensions. Crypto analyst Will Clemente emphasized this shift by describing Bitcoin as “the fastest horse,,” not noting that geopolitical and economic uncertainties enhance its attractiveness and attractiveness as a non-sovereign store of value.
Notably, On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day delay on most of his previously stated reciprocal tariffs, leaving a 10% base tariff for all countries except China, which faces a steep 125% tariff.
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