Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has emphasized that Bitcoin (BTC) needs to maintain a price above $76,500 until the U.S. tax deadline on April 15.
He warns that failure to do so could trigger market turmoil following Donald Trump’s planned tariff rollout on April 2, referred to as “Liberation Day.” Despite his earlier prediction that BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of the year, the cryptocurrency is currently trading at $83,253, reflecting a 20% decline from its December 2024 peak of $109,079.
Hayes has a history of linking macroeconomic events to cryptocurrency market fluctuations. In March 2023, he predicted a Bitcoin surge past $30,000 following U.S. regional bank failures, which resulted in an 80% rally over three months. He recently warned that external factors, such as Trump’s tariffs, are unsettling traders, with $150 million in BTC liquidations reported since April 2. Hayes’ long-standing prediction of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 is connected to dollar weakness and expected Fed rate cuts, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s 2021 bull run, which peaked at $69,000 during a stimulus period. Currently, traders are eyeing the critical $76,500 threshold as “Liberation Day” and tax deadlines approach.
Echoing this sentiment, Trading_Axe on X emphasizes that overly bearish sentiment can signal significant market rallies. They observe that current trader disheartenment from prolonged fluctuations may set the stage for a major rally.
The Bitcoin market is in the latter phase of a bull cycle, characterized by high volatility and the potential for substantial gains before transitioning to bear market conditions. Traders have drawn parallels to previous bull market periods, suggesting profit opportunities remain.
Notably, Arthur Hayes predicted a Bitcoin rally that would peak in late March, which was influenced by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening and liquidity changes. While the Fed plans to withdraw $180 billion, adjustments to the Reverse Repo Program could inject $237 billion, leading to a net liquidity increase of $57 billion in Q1 2025.
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