Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has unveiled a bullish new outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting that the leading cryptocurrency could soar to as high as $2.4 million by 2030.
The projection was shared in the firm’s April 24 report, highlighting Bitcoin’s long-term potential across various financial sectors.
The investment firm laid out three core scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next six years: a conservative estimate of $300,000, a base case of $710,000, and a bullish outlook of $1.5 million. However, in an even more ambitious scenario—factoring in lost or dormant supply and a 60% annual growth in on-chain financial services—Bitcoin’s valuation could top $2.4 million by the decade’s by the end of the decade.
ARK’s valuation framework identifies six major capital inflows expected to drive Bitcoin’s growth: government reserves, corporate treasuries, institutional portfolios, digital gold use cases, emerging market adoption, and financial infrastructure built on Bitcoin. Among these, institutional investment is forecasted to play the most significant role, potentially accounting for over 43% of Bitcoin’s future value if the asset captures just 6.5% of the $200 trillion global investable asset pool (excluding gold).
Emerging market adoption also stands out as a critical pillar. According to ARK, if Bitcoin secures just 2.5% of the $68 trillion global monetary base, it could comfortably meet the firm’s $710,000 base case projection. Contributions from corporations and governments are expected to remain moderate, but ARK suggests they could accelerate as broader adoption takes hold.
Bitcoin’s on-chain financial layer is the most unpredictable yet promising factor, including second-layer solutions and tokenized BTC. Although representing a $35 billion addressable market, its projected growth, ranging from 20% in bearish scenarios to 60% in bullish ones, could deliver a significant upside to Bitcoin’s valuation if those targets are met.
Meanwhile, according to a report by ARK Invest titled “Big Ideas 2025,” stablecoin adoption surged in 2024, with transaction volumes reaching a record-breaking $15.6 trillion, surpassing the combined volumes of major players like Visa and Mastercard by notable margins—119% over Visa and 200% over Mastercard.
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