Bitcoin is trading just below $119,000, but key on-chain metrics are flashing caution.
The 365-day moving average of the MVRV Ratio, a tool used to compare Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, is mimicking the structure seen ahead of the 2021 market peak, raising the risk of a repeat correction.
MVRV Points to a Potential Cycle Peak
“Back in 2021, the MVRV 365DMA formed a double-top camel pattern — a peak followed by another six months later — just before the bear market began. That second peak effectively marked the turning point.” – By @Yonsei_dent pic.twitter.com/swKfhtEUXD
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 28, 2025
Analysts tracking the MVRV 365DMA say the indicator is forming a double-top pattern similar to what preceded the last bear cycle. If history repeats, a final peak could emerge around September 10. However, because the MVRV is a lagging indicator, the actual reversal may begin earlier potentially by late August.
This timing aligns with macroeconomic triggers including speculation over a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which could inject new volatility into global markets.
Meanwhile, a spike in USDT movements across the TRON blockchain is amplifying concerns about short-term turbulence. Data shows centralized exchanges particularly Binance are behind a sharp rise in USDT transfers. Binance alone accounts for roughly 62% of all TRON-based USDT flows, with volumes reaching up to $3 billion per day.
Historically, heavy USDT movements between exchanges signal shifts in market sentiment and positioning, often preceding volatility. The surge suggests renewed institutional activity, with players possibly preparing for major trades or hedges.
TRON’s low transaction fees and speed continue to make it the go-to network for high-frequency stablecoin movement, especially among whales and trading desks.
With Bitcoin nearing record highs and liquidity flows rising sharply, traders are being urged to monitor both price structure and stablecoin behavior closely as the market enters a critical window.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s steady climb has yet to trigger major profit-taking from large holders. According to CryptoQuant, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) which tracks net Bitcoin movement between exchanges is showing a different pattern than those seen at the 2017 and 2021 tops, indicating that selling pressure from whales remains muted.
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