The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decreased to 102.96 at press time due to renewed trade tensions under President Trump, causing global market unease.
Axel Adler Jr. noted on X that Bitcoin’s behaviour during the dollar’s decline suggests a potential change in macro-crypto correlations.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 102.96 amid persistent trade uncertainty. Trump denied rumors that he might pause his sweeping tariff initiatives, while expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue with trade partners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70… pic.twitter.com/x9hG5lm0aV
— Axel ???????? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 8, 2025
Trump dismissed reports about pausing tariffs and suggested a potential 50% increase in Chinese imports unless China withdraws its retaliatory actions. This stance follows Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s confirmation that around 70 countries seek tariff negotiations with the White House. China condemned Trump’s remarks, labelling them as “blackmail” and promised to “fight to the end.”
Adler observed that the weakening dollar, which usually increases Bitcoin demand, hasn’t had its expected effect due to investor anxiety over escalating trade tensions. He noted that global markets responded negatively to Trump’s comments, leading investors to seek safer assets. Consequently, equities declined, bond markets rallied amid recession fears, and Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,300 before stabilizing at its annual simple moving average.
He highlighted on-chain indicators indicating potential selling pressure as Bitcoin reached the 800-day mark and referenced a model using NUPL and SOPR to identify moments of real sell-side momentum. Despite the increasing volatility, he noted Bitcoin’s resilience, with no significant sell-off in the spot market and ongoing corporate accumulation.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 102.96 amid persistent trade uncertainty. Trump denied rumors that he might pause his sweeping tariff initiatives, while expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue with trade partners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70… pic.twitter.com/x9hG5lm0aV
— Axel ???????? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 8, 2025
However, Adler warned that Trump’s recent call for increased monetary stimulus adds uncertainty, as it might provide short-term support for risk assets while also reigniting inflation concerns. He also pointed out a potential warning for equities, stating that a VIX index spike above 30 and a more than 4% drop in the S&P 500 could lead to deeper pullbacks, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s daily selling volume on major exchanges has experienced a sharp decline, dropping from 81,000 BTC to 29,000 BTC, as Adler highlighted in a post on April 1. This trend adds another layer of complexity to current market dynamics, suggesting reduced retail activity and potentially more controlled hands guiding the asset during turbulent times.
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