Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline in daily selling volume on major exchanges, dropping from 81,000 BTC to 29,000 BTC, as highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. in an April 1 post on X.
This shift in market dynamics suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a supply shortage phase, marked by fewer sellers and consistent demand, which could set the stage for the next significant price movement.
The average selling pressure on top exchanges has dropped from 81K to 29K BTC per day.
Welcome to the zone of asymmetric demand.
The market has successfully absorbed waves of profit-taking following the break above $100K.
Sellers have dried up, and buyers seem comfortable with… pic.twitter.com/mgzrCacMMq— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 1, 2025
A similar trend is emerging in the futures trading market. In another post, Adler observed that short positions spiked as bearish traders aimed to profit from Bitcoin’s February all-time high. However, this selling pressure is subsiding, and trading behaviour is beginning to shift, signalling a potential change in market sentiment.
Institutional investors, mainly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are increasingly influencing Bitcoin’s price movements, surpassing the impact of retail investors.
This shift has made Bitcoin more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies and inflation reports. Additionally, Binance’s significant dominance in spot trading, with a trading volume eight times that of Coinbase, suggests a bullish trend for Bitcoin. Historical trends indicate that when Binance leads in trading volume, Bitcoin often experiences price surges, reinforcing the potential for upward price movement.
Dominance of Binance’s Spot Volume and Its Market Impact
“This indicator is turning positive again, meaning Binance’s volume is consistently outpacing other exchanges. The last time this happened was in January 2024, when Bitcoin was trading at around $42,000 and later surged to… pic.twitter.com/X0b5L4ZUdW
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 31, 2025
However, not all indicators point to immediate gains for Bitcoin. A March 31 analysis from 10x Research noted that rising inflation and newly imposed tariffs could weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. With inflation currently at 5%, analysts caution that higher expectations could slow down institutional inflows into the market, potentially dampening bullish momentum.
Bitcoin currently trades at $83,530, with a weekly range of $81,488 to $88,240, according to Coinmarketcap. Analysts from Matrixport have observed that increased money supply from central banks may lead to more liquidity in the crypto market. Still, they warn that this does not guarantee higher Bitcoin prices due to a weak theoretical correlation between liquidity growth and price movement.
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