According to a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg’s Markets Live Pulse, Bitcoin has the potential to become one of the top three assets in the event of a U.S. debt default.
The survey, conducted from May 8 to May 12, 2023, gathered responses from 637 participants, including both professional and retail investors. It presented a hypothetical scenario of a debt default in the United States government.
The findings revealed that over 50% of finance professionals would choose to invest in gold if a debt default occurred. U.S. Treasurys ranked as the second most preferred option, while Bitcoin emerged as the third most popular alternative among retail investors.
Bitcoin emerged as a preferred option over traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, or the Swiss franc. The survey revealed that approximately 8% of professional investor respondents and 11% of retail investor respondents express a greater inclination towards purchasing Bitcoin.
The Bloomberg survey also highlighted the increasing unease in the market regarding the U.S. debt ceiling. Approximately 60% of the respondents expressed greater concerns compared to the 2011 debt-limit crisis, which was the most severe in recent history.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a warning in early May 2023 that the United States might face a catastrophic default if the debt limit is not suspended or increased by June 1. President Biden further emphasized the severity of the situation by highlighting the far-reaching consequences a default would have on the global economy.
In light of investors’ growing concerns about a possible default, President Biden is also preparing to meet with Congress on May 16, 2023, to discuss the U.S. debt ceiling. The meeting is expected to address the issue and provide reassurances for safeguarding investors’ savings.
Although the cost of insuring against non-payment through one-year credit default swaps has risen significantly, surpassing levels observed during previous instances, it is important to note that these indicators still suggest a relatively low likelihood of an actual default occurring.
Priya Misra, head of rates strategy at TD Securities, stated:
“If we do see a short period of default, the market reaction would put pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling.”
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