A new market report from HTX Research suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching the final phase of its current market correction, as several technical and on-chain indicators begin to converge near levels historically associated with market bottoms.
According to the March 2026 research note, Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its October 2025 peak of about $126,296 and is now trading within a consolidation range between $65,000 and $70,000. Analysts say this range has become a key zone where institutional investors are debating whether the market is forming a structural bottom or preparing for another decline.
The report argues that identifying a market bottom is less about catching the exact lowest price and more about locating what researchers call a “valuation gravity zone.” This is a price range where downside risks begin to narrow while long-term accumulation opportunities gradually increase.
— HTX Research (@HTX_Research) March 13, 2026
Cycle comparison suggests faster correction
Researchers compared the current downturn with the 2021–2022 bear market and found that the present correction appears to be unfolding significantly faster. According to the analysis, the decline from the 2025 peak has progressed roughly 40% faster than the previous major market drawdown.
At the same time, analysts caution that the recent rebound from roughly $60,000 to near $70,000 could represent a temporary recovery often described as a “dead cat bounce.” During the 2022 bear market, similar rallies temporarily restored investor optimism before the market eventually moved lower again prior to reaching its final bottom.
On-chain indicators signal late-stage bear market
Several blockchain metrics referenced in the report suggest Bitcoin may already be entering the late stage of the current bear cycle. One key indicator is the share of long-term holder supply currently held at a loss, which has reached around 27%
Technical levels are also being closely monitored. The report identifies $63,200 as a key Fibonacci retracement support level, while $51,700 could act as a deeper downside target if another wave of selling emerges.
Meanwhile, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s estimated mining production cost following the 2024 Bitcoin Halving now ranges between $60,000 and $75,000, potentially creating a natural support zone if prices fall further. Notably, according to a recent report from Santiment, crypto markets are showing signs of accumulation as investors anticipate the White House’s March 1 internal deadline related to the Clarity Act.
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