Quick Breakdown
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin could fall up to 70% in the next bear market, echoing historic cycle drawdowns.
- Cowen expects Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin toward the end of the cycle, despite short-term weakness.
- Market experts remain divided, with projections ranging from new highs this year to a prolonged bull run into 2026.
Analysts divided on when Bitcoin’s next cycle top will arrive
Crypto investors sidelined from Bitcoin this year may get another chance to accumulate, with analyst Benjamin Cowen predicting the leading cryptocurrency could plunge by as much as 70% in the next bear market.
Historic cycles point to steep corrections
Speaking in an interview with Kyle Chasse, Cowen highlighted that past bear markets have seen Bitcoin fall 94%, 87%, and about 77% from cycle highs.
“I would say maybe a 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up,”
Cowen explained, adding that while it’s not guaranteed, history suggests investors should remain cautious.
If Bitcoin were to reach projections as high as $250,000, a 70% correction would drag the price down to around $75,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $117,010, up 3.41% in the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Cycle top could come suddenly
Cowen said he expects another strong rally ahead, but warned investors not to underestimate how quickly the peak could form.
He added that if Bitcoin rallies hard in Q4, he plans to take profits back into stablecoins and may not re-enter the market until mid-2026.
Ethereum to outperform toward cycle end
Cowen also weighed in on Ethereum’s trajectory, predicting that ETH will underperform Bitcoin in the short term but shine as the cycle matures.
“Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” he noted, while warning of weakness in October. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed 8.56% in the past month, according to TradingView.
Industry voices split on market outlook
The debate around Bitcoin’s cycle timing remains fierce.
Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, said he expects 2026 to be an “up year” and foresees several strong years ahead.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, sees a “greater than 50% chance” of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 to $150,000 this year before a new bear market in 2026.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, remains defiant, insisting in June that “winter is not coming back.”
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