Bitcoin’s era of triple-digit annual returns may be nearing its end, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who points to rising institutional involvement as a key factor in flattening the asset’s long-term growth trajectory.
Once fueled by internet hype and retail enthusiasm, Bitcoin appears to be entering a more stable and mature phase as large-scale investors gain a stronger foothold.
People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams. Here’s the actual CAGR chart. We are well past the 2017 year where we’d see many 100s of percent growth.
Now look at 2020, that was the year BTC got institutionalised, corporations and sovereigns… pic.twitter.com/hcGAGZXkU5
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 18, 2025
Expanding on this shift, Woo recently challenged the belief in Bitcoin’s boundless growth in a post on X. “People think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams,” he wrote, referencing a chart that shows how the explosive returns seen in 2017 have steadily declined. The data, he suggests, reflects a broader transformation in market dynamics. He identified 2020 as a key year for institutional adoption, with corporations and sovereigns accumulating Bitcoin. As a result, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate has decreased from over 100% to approximately 30-40%, indicating reduced volatility and growth potential as more capital enters the market.
Supporting this observation, data from Bitcoin Treasuries reveals that private and public companies, ETFs, and governments now collectively hold close to 3 million BTC as of May.
As a result of this large-scale accumulation, Woo argues that Bitcoin is behaving more like a macroeconomic asset. He expects the cryptocurrency will “continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium,” signaling a maturation that shifts focus from exponential gains to long-term stability.
While Woo still sees growth in Bitcoin’s future, he suggests that its compound annual growth rate may ultimately stabilize around 8%. This projection aligns with broader economic indicators, including an average 5% monetary expansion and 3% global GDP growth.
Adding to the picture, new data from Santiment shows an increasing concentration of Bitcoin holdings among large wallets, even as the share owned by retail investors continues to shrink. This trend underscores the changing ownership landscape and supports Woo’s broader thesis of institutional dominance reshaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
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