Crypto traders may want to reconsider their summer plans as options markets signal that the upcoming months could bring heightened activity.
Although summer is traditionally known for quieter trading in crypto and equities, recent data from Kaiko’s analysts indicates that volatility and market action could heat up instead.
In a recent research note, analysts highlighted that since 2020, Bitcoin has typically experienced its lowest trading volumes during the third quarter, the peak summer months. The only exception was in 2022, when a wave of bankruptcies, including Celsius Network and Three Arrows Capital, triggered significant market turmoil.
Building on this, the data reveals that options markets are already factoring in increased volatility, signalling that unusual market activity could be imminent. Notably, options set to expire on June 27 have experienced a surge in volume, with bullish wagers focused on striking prices of $110,000 and $120,000. These bets indicate that some traders anticipate Bitcoin reaching new highs despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
Several factors are converging to heighten these market expectations. Kaiko data highlight the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting as a potential influence on broader financial conditions, while former President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline adds a layer of geopolitical risk.
Despite these signals, historically, summer has been a slowdown in trading activity. August often sees a notable dip in stock trading volumes, and crypto markets tend to follow this pattern. On-chain and exchange volumes typically decline during this period. For example, spot trading dropped by nearly 20% in August 2023, while total exchange volume fell by more than 11%, according to Kaiko data.
Bitcoin’s era of triple-digit annual returns may be nearing its end, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, who points to rising institutional involvement as a key factor in flattening the asset’s long-term growth trajectory. Once fueled by internet hype and retail enthusiasm, Bitcoin appears to be entering a more stable and mature phase as large-scale investors gain a stronger foothold.
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