João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, hasweighed in on growing investor concerns surrounding Bitcoin’s next move and the potential timeline for an altcoin season.
In a detailed update, Wedson said that a further drop below the 65,000 mark remains firmly on the table, pointing to several critical metrics that suggest Bitcoin may retest lower levels before a meaningful recovery begins.
Many people have been asking me whether I’ve changed my mind about the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $65k and if we’ll actually see an Altcoin Season.
In this post, I’ll try to address everything:
1️⃣. We’re not ruling out the possibility of the price dipping below $65k,… pic.twitter.com/TFGOCnT6Ap
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) April 13, 2025
The current market analysis indicates that the True Market Mean Price and Alpha Price are around 64,700, suggesting a strong support area. Additionally, the CVDD Channel identifies support at 66,300, with a more substantial buffer around 61,000. The Active Realized Price stands at 70,200, which is a strong support level for 2024. However, Wedson warns that the market is in a redistribution phase, highlighted by selling activity from miners and short-term holders, with no signs of new accumulation.
Despite the near-term turbulence, Wedson remains confident that an altcoin season is still on the horizon. He maintains that Bitcoin’s peak will likely arrive around mid-October, with altcoins gaining momentum through November and possibly into December. His outlook, he stressed, is driven not by guesswork but by “Alpha metrics”—exclusive, institutional-grade indicators that go beyond the scope of typical retail analysis.
Wedson states that the metrics used by Alphractal enabled accurate predictions for both the FTX bottom and the recent Bitcoin top, which were shared in real time on Telegram. Despite Bitcoin pulling back from a high of over 74,000, he believes the current price zone still offers a favourable opportunity for accumulation.
In addition to his Bitcoin analysis, Wedson also issued a cautionary outlook on XRP. He warned that the token could enter a prolonged and volatile distribution phase until late 2025. Drawing from the Wyckoff distribution model, he outlined two scenarios: overtly bearish and another that may appear bullish but is ultimately misleading.
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