Economist and market commentator Peter Schiff has expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s future, linking its potential impact to the recent 12% decline in the NASDAQ.
He warns that this correction could lead to a bear market.
Schiff highlights a concerning correlation between NASDAQ downturns and Bitcoin value, noting that a 12% decline in the NASDAQ typically leads to a 24% drop in Bitcoin. He suggests a 20% fall in the NASDAQ could drive Bitcoin’s value down to approximately 65,000 units. Historical analysis shows significant NASDAQ declines during past crises, averaging a 55% drop, which could lead Bitcoin to fall to around 20,000 units or lower if panic selling occurs. Schiff warns that if the NASDAQ enters a bear market similar to previous downturns, the impact on Bitcoin could be even more severe.
He pointed out the negative correlation between the NASDAQ and gold, noting that since the NASDAQ peaked on December 16, 2023, gold has increased by 13%. He speculated that a 40% decline in the NASDAQ could push gold prices above 3,800 units, especially if it coincides with a weakening dollar. Schiff also suggested that if Bitcoin crashes to 20,000 units while gold rises, Bitcoin’s value relative to gold could drop by over 85%, questioning Bitcoin’s status as a reliable store of value. He warned that this could lead governments and institutions to reconsider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, potentially causing mass sell-offs. Additionally, he cautioned that if ETF investors start liquidating holdings, companies heavily invested in Bitcoin, such as MicroStrategy, could face bankruptcy risks.
However, Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts highlighted that a weakening US dollar could create a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. As of March 10, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had dropped to a four-month low of 103.85. However, Coutts also warned that increasing volatility in Treasury bonds and widening corporate bond spreads could present short-term risks.
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