Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket has seen a surge in activity as users bet on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political future.
As of press time, the platform assigns an 80% probability of his resignation by the end of January 6.
Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation as Liberal Party leader at a press conference on January 6, according to a report from local media outlet CBC. This anticipated announcement follows mounting political pressure and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation in December 2024. Freeland cited policy disagreements with Trudeau, including disputes over handling potential tariffs threatened by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Freeland’s departure deepened political uncertainty in Canada, amplifying calls for Trudeau to step down. With his official schedule confirming a media address on January 6, speculation about his leadership has reached a fever pitch, further amplified by Polymarket’s political betting odds.
Polymarket has gained traction outside the United States for its wagers on global events after its record-high activity during the latest elections in the North American country. However, concerns linger over the platform’s integrity, as large bets from high-stakes players could influence the displayed probabilities.
Polymarket has previously faced legal scrutiny. Prosecutors in Taiwan recently charged a man, identified as “Chen,” for using the platform to bet on the country’s 2024 elections. Chen placed bets totalling 472 USDC on Ko Wen-je, the Taiwan People’s Party candidate, to win the presidency, as well as 60 USDC on the Democratic Progressive Party securing more legislative seats.
Taiwanese authorities argued that Chen’s actions violated local laws prohibiting online gambling on the outcomes of political elections. Chen admitted to the charges and was granted deferred prosecution for one year and a fine of 30,000 yuan (roughly $4,000) because of a lack of prior convictions.
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