Altcoins could be in for a challenging period ahead if historical patterns in market cycles are repeated, according to crypto analyst and ITC crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.
Cowen shared in a recent post on X that a significant “altcoin reckoning” could be approaching as trading pairs between altcoins and Bitcoin (BTC) have seen an extended downturn.
It looks like the grand finale of the altcoin reckoning has finally arrived.
The altcoin reckoning should be over by December 2024 (2nd week of January 2025 at the latest).
It has been a long journey, and many gave up along the way, but this process was always going to play out pic.twitter.com/WRVUvIHDTt
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 3, 2024
Cowen pointed to past cycles, such as the steep decline in altcoins in 2019, observing that the current altcoin market cap chart resembles a similar pattern. He anticipates this reckoning may last through December 2024 or early January 2025.
“It has been a long journey, and many gave up along the way, but this process was always going to play out,”
Cowen stated.
He further noted that the current cycle resembles the gradual recovery of altcoins in 2020, which eventually led to substantial gains in 2021. This could suggest a repeat pattern by 2025, possibly driven by Bitcoin’s just concluded halving event.
Other crypto traders have echoed Cowen’s views. Trader “Ardizor” noted that current market trends mirror ‘altseason’ dynamics last seen in 2017 and 2021, while another well-followed investor, “Sensei,” forecasted that “the biggest altseason ever will start in less than 10 days.”
Similarly, analyst Moataz Elsayed suggested on October 14 that Bitcoin’s dominance may soon see a sharp decline, hinting at a possible altcoin season.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has now risen to 60.5%, a level not seen since March 2021, according to data from TradingView. Analysts suggest that altcoins are unlikely to see strong recoveries until Bitcoin’s dominance dips below 50%.
The recent crypto market pullback has been particularly tough on altcoins. The total market capitalization fell to $2.4 trillion as of November 4, with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) down by around 11% since their October peaks and Binance Coin (BNB) down by 8%. Bitcoin has been comparatively resilient, posting a smaller decline of 5.8% from its recent high of $73,000, according to data from CoinGecko.
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